Pending home sales hit a record low in September as mortgage rates start to ease

Contract signings on existing homes fell to the lowest level ever recorded in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. The report landed just as mortgage rates began to ease, and this week Freddie Mac reported a third straight weekly decline. Together, the two releases give a clear picture of a market that slowed sharply in late summer and is now waiting to see whether cheaper borrowing brings buyers back.

September pending sales: a record low

NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks signed contracts on existing homes before they close, dropped 7.3% in September to a reading of 66.0. That is the lowest level in the index’s history, HousingWire noted. Compared with September 2025, pending sales were down 11.3%. The decline followed a small 0.3% gain in August, so the September drop erased that progress and more.

Every region of the country lost ground in September, compared with August:

• West: down 9.2% for the month and 15.0% from a year earlier, the steepest declines
• South: down 8.2% for the month and 12.0% year over year
• Midwest: down 6.5% for the month and 8.7% year over year
• Northeast: down 4.2% for the month and 9.4% year over year

NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, pointed to the rapid rise in mortgage rates during the period as the main cause. He also suggested the pause may be a choice rather than a collapse in demand: “Buyers and sellers may simply be holding back until mortgage rates move favorably.” Because pending contracts usually turn into closed sales within a month or two, the September figure points to soft closed-sale numbers for October and November.

Mortgage rates: three weeks of relief

The good news for anyone still shopping is that borrowing costs have started to come down. In its Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of November 5, 2026, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed rate fell to 7.18%, from 7.24% the week before. The 15-year fixed rate slipped to 6.57%, from 6.60%.

Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said “mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory this week,” and described the trend as an improvement for prospective buyers. Still, rates remain well above where they were a year ago, when the 30-year average was 6.22% and the 15-year average was 5.50%. In other words, the recent decline is a step in the right direction, not a return to last year’s conditions.

For a closer look at this week’s rate report, see Upstormed News: Mortgage rates fall for a third straight week.

Why the two numbers belong together

Pending sales measure what buyers did weeks ago, while weekly rates show what they face today. September’s contracts were signed when rates were climbing quickly, so the record low reflects that moment. The three-week slide in rates since then has not yet shown up in contract data. NAR’s next pending sales report, covering October, will be the first real test of whether lower rates are pulling people back into the market.

What it means

• For buyers: Fewer signed contracts usually means less competition for the homes that are listed. With rates easing, it can make sense to revisit a budget and compare loan quotes from several lenders, since small rate differences add up over the life of a loan.
• For sellers: A record-low contract pace means buyers are selective. Pricing in line with recent nearby sales and keeping a home in good condition matter more in a slow market than in a busy one.
• For long-term owners: Monthly swings in contract activity say little about the value of a home held for many years. Owners who are not planning to move can watch the data without reacting to every report.

The Upstormed Real Estate view

Upstormed approaches real estate with a long horizon: owning estates, building new ones and investing in property over time. From that point of view, a quiet market is a reminder that housing moves in cycles. Families who plan around their own needs, timelines and budgets, rather than headlines, tend to be in a stronger position whichever way the next report goes. This article is for general information only and is not financial or investment advice.

Follow Upstormed’s approach on the Investments page, or read more real estate news.

Sources: National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac, HousingWire